进口量居高不下 拉美石化业利润持续承压

Core Insights - The Latin American chemical industry is facing significant profit pressure due to excessive imports and declining local production [1][2] - The region has become a dumping ground for surplus chemical products, leading to a lack of competitiveness for local industries [1][3] Group 1: Industry Challenges - The Latin American petrochemical sector is under continuous pressure from global supply surplus and low pricing, with local production declining while imports surge [1] - In Mexico, the state-owned oil company, Pemex, has seen its petrochemical output drop by nearly 75% over the past few years, exacerbating the need for imports [1][2] - Brazil is experiencing low demand and falling prices, with local production being squeezed by imports, despite some protective measures [2] Group 2: Infrastructure and Regulatory Issues - Mexico's natural gas production has decreased by one-third over the past 15 years, leading to a reliance on U.S. imports for 70% of its consumption, while pipeline infrastructure is at full capacity [2] - The Mexican chemical industry faces logistical challenges, with ports and transportation networks overwhelmed, and a significant increase in inspection rates causing delays [2] Group 3: Trade Policies and Solutions - Mexico has implemented aggressive trade protection measures similar to U.S. policies, including tariffs on chemical products with significant import increases [3] - The USMCA agreement allows for competitive pricing on natural gas and aims for greater self-sufficiency in raw material production [3] - Despite protective measures, the underlying issue of local production capacity remains a critical challenge for the industry [3]