Group 1: Market Overview - The phenol industry chain is experiencing a "旺季不旺" (busy season not busy) situation, with phenol prices dropping from 7050 yuan per ton in early September to 6400-6450 yuan by the end of October, a decline of 8.5% [1] - Analysts believe that the supply-demand mismatch will remain unresolved, and the phenol market will continue to face pressure in the short term, with further downside potential [1] Group 2: Raw Materials - The two main raw materials for phenol, pure benzene and propylene, have both weakened recently, leading to insufficient cost support for phenol [2] - Pure benzene prices fell by 3.13% month-on-month in September and continued to decline by over 5% in October, with some regions seeing prices around 5400 yuan, down more than 25% year-on-year [2] - Propylene prices also dropped below 6000 yuan in several regions by the end of October, marking a new low for the year, due to weak cost support from upstream crude oil and propane prices [2] Group 3: Phenol Supply Dynamics - The continuous decline in the phenol market is closely linked to the concentrated release of production capacity, with significant new capacity coming online in Q3 [3] - Despite temporary supply tightening due to maintenance shutdowns, the overall supply remains ample, leading to persistent downward pressure on phenol prices [3] - Future supply is expected to remain abundant, with several facilities scheduled for maintenance but others ramping up production, indicating a lack of recovery in the phenol market [3] Group 4: Bisphenol A Market Challenges - The bisphenol A market is facing a significant imbalance between supply growth and slowing demand, resulting in deep losses for the industry [4] - Although bisphenol A prices briefly rose above 8200 yuan during the "golden September," the market has since entered a downward trend due to weak downstream demand [4] - The polycarbonate (PC) industry is experiencing limited new orders, with a current operating rate of 77%, down 4 percentage points from September 30, which is expected to reduce bisphenol A consumption [4] Group 5: Epoxy Resin Industry Impact - The epoxy resin industry is also struggling, with an operating rate of only 51% [5] - Recent policy changes regarding wind power have negatively impacted the epoxy resin sector, which may further reduce the procurement of bisphenol A by epoxy resin manufacturers, creating a negative feedback loop across the entire supply chain [5]
苯酚产业链：供需错配旺季不旺
Zhong Guo Hua Gong Bao·2025-11-05 07:47