供需面尚未改变 预计短期内玻璃趋势震荡运行

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the domestic glass futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract closing at 1097.00 yuan/ton, down 0.54% [1] - Supply side analysis reveals that the implementation of technical reform policies in Shahe glass production lines affects a total of 4 production lines with a combined daily melting capacity of 2750 tons, and the likelihood of ignition within the year is low due to the requirement for production lines to stop before restarting [1] - The industry is facing continuous losses, leading to an increase in cold repair plans for production lines in East China, Hubei, and South China after November [1] Group 2 - Demand analysis shows that the current real estate completion is in a downward cycle, resulting in a continuous decline in new housing glass demand, while second-hand housing transactions are performing well, and production in automotive, home appliances, and electronics is increasing, providing some support for glass demand [1] - It is expected that overall supply and demand for glass will decrease by about 7% this year, indicating a basic balance, but the ongoing decline in new home sales and tight funding for real estate companies are leading to an unexpected drop in new housing glass demand, creating significant supply and inventory pressure [1] - Inventory data indicates that last week, factory inventory decreased by 823,000 weight boxes, with the most significant reduction in North China, followed by East China, while South China experienced a slight increase in inventory [1] Group 3 - Market outlook suggests that while policy support is forming, the fundamental supply and demand situation has not changed, leading to a market dominated by low-priced midstream transactions and weak factory shipments, with price trends expected to fluctuate in the short term [1]