煤炭四季度涨价预期较强，全市场唯一煤炭ETF（515220）领涨超1%

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector is experiencing an improved supply-demand balance, presenting investment opportunities in the fourth quarter, particularly through the coal ETF (515220) which has a current scale of nearly 13 billion yuan [1][4]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - In Q3 2025, the coal sector generated revenue of 297.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 16.5% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 27.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 30.3% but a significant quarter-on-quarter improvement of 14.1% [2]. - The domestic coal production growth rate is gradually slowing due to safety regulations and overproduction checks, with coal output declining year-on-year for three consecutive months from July to September. Additionally, coal imports have also been decreasing, with September imports down 23% year-on-year and a cumulative decline of 11.1% from January to September [2]. Group 2: Price Expectations and Market Conditions - The supply side remains constrained, with strong expectations for price increases in Q4 due to safety production assessments and uncertainties regarding coal imports from Mongolia. The coal supply is expected to contract further, especially with ongoing safety inspections [3]. - As of October 31, the price of thermal coal at the northern ports was reported at 770 yuan per ton. If prices exceed 850 yuan per ton, it could squeeze the profit margins of power plants. However, if a cold winter materializes, a supply gap may emerge, allowing for upward price elasticity in coal [3]. - The second round of price increases for coking coal has been largely implemented, with strong expectations for a third round. Despite some short-term impacts from maintenance at certain steel mills, overall demand for coking coal remains robust [3]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The coal ETF (515220) is the only coal ETF in the market, with a scale nearing 13 billion yuan. It tracks the CSI Coal Index, which has a dividend yield exceeding 5.3% over the past 12 months. In the context of declining risk-free interest rates, the ETF presents significant investment value [4].