“反内卷”政策推动 看好钢铁机会——从三季报看钢铁如何布局？

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry has shown a significant improvement in profitability in Q3 2025, driven by policies aimed at reducing competition and improving supply-side dynamics, leading to a return to profitability year-on-year [1][3]. Performance - In Q3 2025, the steel sector achieved revenue of 483.4 billion yuan, remaining stable compared to Q2, and reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 9 billion yuan, reflecting an 11% quarter-on-quarter increase and a return to profitability year-on-year [1]. - The average profit margin for steel mills increased from 59% at the end of June to 64% by the end of August, with an average profit margin of 62% in Q3, up 4.5 percentage points from Q2 [3]. Analysis - The "anti-involution" policy has strengthened expectations for supply-side reductions, resulting in a rapid increase in steel prices starting in Q3, combined with lower raw material inventory costs, which has significantly improved steel mill profits [3]. - The estimated net profit per ton for steel in Q3 2025 was 92 yuan, representing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14 yuan per ton, placing it in the 68th percentile since 2021 [3]. Outlook - Expectations for supply-side reductions are increasing, with policies aimed at reducing production capacity and promoting the exit of inefficient capacities, which will lead to a more competitive environment in the steel industry [4]. - The "Steel Industry Stabilization and Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" outlines specific targets for production control to maintain supply-demand balance, indicating a shift towards a phase of survival of the fittest in the industry [4]. Cost Factors - The supply of iron ore is expected to become more favorable for the steel industry, particularly with the upcoming production from the West Simandou iron ore project, which is projected to reach an annual output of 120 million tons [5]. - The profit distribution within the steel industry shows that iron ore profits accounted for 72%, while coking coal and finished products accounted for 7% and 22%, respectively, indicating a significant potential for iron ore to benefit the steel sector [5]. Investment Opportunities - The steel sector is currently undervalued, with a price-to-book ratio of 1.13 as of November 4, 2025, which is in the 56.56th percentile over the past decade, suggesting potential for investment as funds begin to position for the upcoming year [6]. - The unique steel ETF (515210) is recommended for investors looking to capitalize on the anticipated improvements in the steel sector driven by the "anti-involution" policies and favorable supply-demand dynamics [6].