英国制造业与服务业形成罕见“双轮复苏”格局

Core Insights - The UK services PMI for October recorded at 52.3, significantly above the market expectation of 51.1, and up from 50.8 in September, indicating a return to expansion in the services sector [1] - The composite PMI rose to 52.2, also exceeding the expected 51.1, marking the strongest performance since November 2024 [1] - There is a rare "dual recovery" pattern as both manufacturing and services show improvement [1] Economic Outlook - Business expectations for the next year have reached the highest level since October 2024, driven by an increase in domestic orders and a notable improvement in business confidence [1] - The employment market shows signs of stabilization, with a significant slowdown in layoffs in the services sector and easing labor market tightness [1] Cost and Pricing Dynamics - Wage growth remains a primary source of pressure, but overall input cost inflation has dropped to the lowest level since November 2024 [1] - Companies' pricing power has weakened, with output price increases hitting a six-month low, indicating a further easing of inflationary pressures [1] Fiscal Policy Impact - Some corporate decisions are constrained by uncertainties surrounding fiscal policy, with several companies postponing major spending plans ahead of the UK budget announcement on November 26 [1] Economic Balance - The latest data strengthens the possibility of a "soft landing" for the UK economy, but there remains a need for careful balancing between inflation risks and growth pressures, with the monetary policy path still unclear [1]