银河期货： 美元延续涨势 贵金属市场承压

Group 1: Macro News - The U.S. government shutdown is ongoing, approaching a record of 35 days [2] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is 70.1%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 29.9% [2] - The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut by January is 55.8%, with a 19.3% chance of no change and a 24.8% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point cut [2] Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - There is significant internal disagreement among Federal Reserve officials regarding the potential rate cut in December [3] - The ongoing government shutdown is hindering the assessment of the U.S. macroeconomic situation due to the lack of key economic data [3] - Market expectations for a December rate cut have been adjusted, leading to a stronger U.S. dollar index, which has pressured precious metal prices [3] - The precious metals market currently lacks significant bullish factors, but there is some buying support during price pullbacks, indicating potential long-term buying interest [3]