比特币巨鲸抛售450亿美元持仓砸盘，分析师：跌势或延续至明年春季

Core Insights - Bitcoin has experienced a significant decline, dropping as much as 7.4% and falling below the $100,000 mark for the first time since June, with a total decline of over 20% from its historical high a month ago [1][2] - The recent downturn is primarily driven by the selling activities of "super whales" holding between 1,000 to 10,000 bitcoins, rather than forced liquidations from leveraged positions [1][2] Group 1 - Approximately 400,000 bitcoins, equivalent to $45 billion, have been sold by long-term holders in the past month, leading to a supply-demand imbalance in the market [1] - In the last 24 hours, around $2 billion in cryptocurrency positions were liquidated, which is significantly lower than the $19 billion liquidated during the October crash [1] - The open interest in Bitcoin futures remains low, while options traders are betting on a price decline with put options targeting $80,000 [1] Group 2 - Over 319,000 bitcoins have been reactivated in the past month, primarily from holders who have kept their assets for 6 to 12 months, indicating a trend of profit-taking since mid-July [2] - The continuous selling by long-term holders and insufficient new buyers is exacerbating market sentiment issues, potentially leading to a further decline in market confidence [2] - The overall accumulation by investors holding between 100 to 1,000 bitcoins has significantly decreased, with large holders not entering the market [2] Group 3 - There is a warning that the current selling trend may persist until spring next year, with large holders having previously sold over 1 million bitcoins during the 2021-2022 bear market [2] - While a catastrophic crash is not predicted, there is an expectation of further downward movement, with a target price of $85,000 as the maximum downside [2]