颠覆预期!“美国例外论”退潮助国际股市历史性跑赢美股

Core Viewpoint - The global stock markets have outperformed the US stock market since Trump's election, contrary to initial investor expectations that his policies would negatively impact international equities [1][5]. Group 1: Performance of Global Markets - Since Trump's election, major stock indices in China, Europe, and Canada have outperformed the S&P 500 index [1]. - The MSCI index for global markets excluding the US has shown the largest outperformance against US stocks since 2009 [1]. - The KOSPI index in South Korea has surged by 55% over the past year, making it the best-performing index among major economies [6]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Strategies - Investors initially injected funds into global markets to hedge against volatility caused by Trump's tariff policies, later seeking lower-valued alternatives to the high-valuation tech stocks dominating the S&P 500 [5]. - The weakening US dollar has made returns from international markets more attractive when measured in dollars [5]. - Some strategists, including those from Goldman Sachs and Bank of America, had previously advised investors to look beyond the US market [5]. Group 3: Valuation Concerns - Despite strong corporate earnings, there are concerns about high valuations in the US stock market, with many executives predicting potential significant sell-offs in the near future [8][11]. - International markets still have lower valuations compared to US markets, which could allow for continued strong performance, particularly in Asian markets [12]. Group 4: Regional Economic Developments - European economic indicators are improving, with inflation under control and the European Central Bank lowering interest rates to 2%, which is significantly lower than US rates [12]. - Germany's stimulus plans are expected to accelerate growth in Europe, potentially narrowing the growth gap with the US [13]. - The Canadian stock market has seen a strong rise of 23% since Trump's election, with expectations of outperforming the US market for the first time since 2010 [14]. Group 5: Emerging Markets - Emerging markets have risen approximately 30% this year, with Brazil's stock market increasing by 44% in dollar terms, driven by expectations of declining global and local interest rates [18]. - Companies have quickly adapted to tariffs by relocating production, which has positively impacted their stock performance [18].