央行10月买债200亿元低于预期？后续仍有想象空间

Core Viewpoint - The central bank's recent announcement of a 200 billion yuan liquidity injection through government bond purchases in October has led to disappointment in the market, as the scale is significantly lower than previous monthly averages, resulting in a rise in bond yields [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Following the announcement, major interest rate bond yields initially rose sharply but later saw buying interest that caused yields to retreat slightly [2]. - The 30-year government bond yield decreased by 0.4 basis points to 2.136%, while the 10-year bond yield remained stable at 1.79% [2]. - Analysts noted that the 200 billion yuan purchase was much lower than the expected 1000 to 3000 billion yuan monthly net purchases, leading to a sense of disappointment among investors [3]. Group 2: Central Bank's Strategy - The central bank's decision to resume bond purchases is seen as a move to stabilize liquidity and manage market expectations without causing a rapid decline in interest rates [3][6]. - The central bank's total bond purchases since last year have reached 1 trillion yuan, but it paused operations earlier this year due to market imbalances [2][3]. - Analysts suggest that the central bank may increase the scale of bond purchases in November to counterbalance other monetary tools maturing [7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The market is expected to focus on the scale, duration, and method of future bond purchases by the central bank [7]. - There is a possibility that the total bond purchase scale for the year could exceed expectations, given the remaining government bonds to be issued [7]. - The impact of the central bank's bond purchases on market yields will depend on the rate movements; if yields decline too quickly, the purchase scale may be reduced [8][9].