PVC产能将达3000万吨！电石法工艺何去何从？

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is actively fulfilling its commitments under the Minamata Convention on Mercury, emphasizing the need for the PVC industry, particularly the acetylene method, to undergo transformation and upgrade due to environmental pressures and supply-demand imbalances [1][2][3] Group 1: Environmental Pressure - The Minamata Convention, effective since August 16, 2017, aims to control and reduce mercury emissions, with the acetylene method for PVC production using mercury chloride as a catalyst, accounting for approximately 60% of national mercury usage [1] - The deadline for the complete ban on primary mercury mining is approaching in 2032, posing a risk of forced exit for acetylene method PVC companies that fail to upgrade to mercury-free technologies [1] - The acetylene method is characterized by high energy consumption, requiring 8,500 kWh of electricity to produce one ton of PVC, and has been listed in the "High Pollution Process Elimination Directory" by the National Development and Reform Commission, mandating a 50% capacity replacement by 2027 [1] Group 2: Supply-Demand Imbalance - The PVC industry has been facing low profit margins due to supply-demand imbalances, exacerbated by the bundling of caustic soda profits, leading to high PVC inventory levels, which increased by 24.48% year-on-year as of October 2025 [2] - The real estate market's deep adjustments have significantly impacted demand, resulting in low PVC prices, while acetylene method producers have been suffering losses due to low calcium carbide prices [2] - New PVC production capacity is expected to add 2.5 to 3.5 million tons in 2023, bringing total domestic capacity to around 30 million tons, further worsening the supply-demand imbalance [2] Group 3: Industry Restructuring - The PVC industry is experiencing a squeeze effect, with the ethylene method gradually capturing market share from the acetylene method, which has historically dominated with 70-80% of total capacity [3] - The cost structure of the ethylene method is more favorable in the current low international oil price environment, leading to a significant increase in new capacity for this method, which is expected to account for over 70% of new capacity in 2023 [3] - By 2030, the ethylene method's capacity share is projected to rise to around 40%, intensifying competition for acetylene method PVC producers [3]