黄金税收新政重塑市场格局 终端涨价预期升温

Core Viewpoint - The new tax policy on gold, effective from November 1, 2025, introduces significant changes in the management of investment and non-investment gold, leading to market volatility and adjustments across the gold industry [1][4][8]. Investment Gold - The new policy differentiates between investment and non-investment gold, with investment gold transactions exempt from VAT at the trading level, but subject to different tax treatments upon physical delivery [1][2]. - Member units of the Shanghai Gold Exchange benefit from tax exemptions when purchasing investment gold bars, creating a closed-loop market that favors these members [4][8]. - The demand for standard investment gold bars has surged, with reports of sold-out stocks in major retail outlets following the announcement of the new policy [5][6]. Non-Investment Gold - Non-investment gold sectors are facing significant pressure, with A-share gold concept stocks experiencing sharp declines, particularly in retail and jewelry sectors [8][9]. - The new tax policy has increased procurement costs for retailers, leading to higher prices for gold jewelry, with reports indicating a price increase of approximately 70 yuan per gram [9][10]. - Smaller non-member retailers are expected to face greater challenges due to higher costs and competitive pressures, while larger firms may leverage their market position to maintain stability [10][11]. General Investor Impact - Investors are advised to adjust their strategies in light of the new tax environment, with a focus on purchasing investment gold through member units to minimize tax costs [11]. - The policy is expected to drive more investment towards online gold products like ETFs, which offer lower transaction costs and higher liquidity compared to physical gold [12].