SHANYING INTERNATIONAL(SH:600567) Zheng Quan Ri Bao Wang·2025-11-05 13:12Core Viewpoint - The packaging paper industry is experiencing a new round of price increases, driven by improved supply-demand fundamentals and rising raw material costs, with expectations for continued price growth in November [1][2]. Industry Overview - As of the end of October, the average price of AA-grade corrugated paper in China was 2962 yuan/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 6.51% and a year-on-year increase of 12.88% [1]. - The price of waste cardboard, a key raw material, rose to 1725 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 5.39% and a year-on-year increase of 17.55%, indicating strong cost support [1]. - The market is currently in a traditional peak season, with expectations for the average price of AA-grade 120g corrugated paper to rise further to a range of 3030 to 3130 yuan/ton in November [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side shows no large-scale shutdown plans from paper companies, with stable production levels expected, although tight waste paper recovery limits inventory growth [2]. - Demand is supported by the release of e-commerce orders related to events like "Double 11," despite high raw material inventory levels at downstream packaging factories potentially limiting restocking efforts [2]. Profitability and Market Trends - The cost increase in the corrugated paper market in October was lower than the rise in raw paper prices, leading to an upward correction in industry profitability [2]. - The packaging paper sector has shown resilience, becoming one of the few segments to see simultaneous increases in price and gross margin from late Q3 to early Q4 [3]. - Analysts predict that the packaging paper sector may experience a recovery in profitability in Q4, driven by cost support and strong seasonal demand [3].