New Oriental's Mixed Quarterly Report Card Is Missing Gold Stars

Core Insights - New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. reported a 6.1% year-over-year revenue increase to $1.52 billion for the first quarter of its fiscal year, with operating profit rising 6% to $310 million, but net profit declined by 1.9% to $240 million, disappointing investors [2][3][4] Financial Performance - Revenue from overseas test preparation and overseas study consulting grew by only 1% and 2% year-over-year, respectively, while domestic exam prep for adults and university students increased by 14.4% and new educational initiatives grew by 15.3% [3][10] - The company’s revenue for the fiscal year through May is projected to reach up to $5.4 billion, with current quarter revenue guidance between $1.13 billion and $1.16 billion, indicating 9% to 12% year-over-year growth [8][13] Market Reaction - Following the profit decline, New Oriental's U.S.-listed shares fell over 9% intraday, closing down 3.4% at $58.56, while Hong Kong shares also dropped [4][5] - Despite the selloff, the stock is trading over 20% higher than its six-month lows, indicating some investor confidence remains [5] Strategic Focus - In light of limited revenue growth potential, the company is prioritizing cost optimization and operational efficiency to improve profits, as stated by CFO Yang Zhihui [11][12] - New Oriental aims to maintain discipline in cost management across all business lines for sustainable growth [12] Growth Challenges - The growth of overseas test preparation and study consulting services has significantly slowed, with expectations of flat revenue for overseas study consulting and only 5% to 10% growth for overseas test preparation in the current fiscal year [9][16] - Ongoing U.S.-China tensions and protectionist policies are creating uncertainty for the overseas study business, which is a major revenue source for New Oriental [9][15] Valuation and Leadership - The current stock price gives New Oriental a forward P/E ratio of 25, reflecting steady operations but lacking immediate growth catalysts [17] - CEO Yu Minhong's leadership is highlighted as a key asset, with a strong track record in navigating regulatory challenges, positioning the company for future opportunities [18]