“存款搬家”效应显现 10月银行理财规模创历史新高

Core Insights - The overall scale of bank wealth management is expected to reach over 33.5 trillion yuan by the end of the year, indicating a shift from a "savings" to an "investment" mindset among residents [1][8] - As of the end of October, the bank wealth management market reached a record high of 33.18 trillion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of approximately 1.05 trillion yuan, and a year-to-date increase of 3.23 trillion yuan [2][4] - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" is driven by the "price comparison effect," as deposit rates continue to decline, prompting customers to seek higher returns in wealth management products [2][3] Market Dynamics - Despite the strong performance of the equity market this year, wealth management product net values experienced two rounds of declines, yet the overall scale continued to grow, reflecting a "buy the dip" mentality among investors [2][4] - The average yield of wealth management products remains around 2%, while the one-year fixed deposit rates of state-owned banks have dropped below 1.5%, maintaining a relative yield advantage [2][4] - The growth in wealth management scale is attributed to two main factors: the continuous decline in deposit rates and the successful adaptation of wealth management subsidiaries through product innovation [3][5] Yield Trends - Wealth management product yields have been under pressure, showing a quarterly decline, with first-quarter returns of 206 billion yuan dropping to 179.2 billion yuan in the third quarter [4][5] - As of the end of the third quarter, the scale of fixed-income products reached 31.21 trillion yuan, accounting for over 97% of the total, with low interest rates leading to reduced yields on underlying assets [4][5] - The average performance benchmark for open-ended products fell to 1.91% in late October, indicating a downward trend in yields [4][5] Future Outlook - Industry experts expect continued growth in wealth management scale, with projections of an increase of 300 to 400 billion yuan in November, driven by seasonal factors and the relative yield advantage of fixed-income products [7][8] - The monetary policy environment is favorable for wealth management growth, with the central bank's actions expected to enhance liquidity and improve the ability of wealth management companies to manage redemptions and volatility [7][8] - However, the long-term outlook suggests challenges with declining yield averages, as the bond market rates are expected to decrease further, potentially reducing the relative attractiveness of wealth management products [7][8]