Why Caterpillar Stock Surged 21% in October

Core Insights - Caterpillar reported strong third-quarter results, exceeding analyst expectations and leading to a stock rally [1][3] - Revenue increased by 10% year-over-year to $17.6 billion, driven by higher equipment sales, while adjusted earnings per share were $4.95, down from $5.17 in the previous year [2][4] - The company's backlog reached a record $39.8 billion, indicating strong future demand [4] Revenue and Earnings - Third-quarter revenue of $17.6 billion marked an all-time quarterly record for Caterpillar [4] - Adjusted earnings per share decreased to $4.95, impacted by a higher effective tax rate and a discrete tax charge [2][6] Segment Performance - Sales growth was observed across all three core segments: Construction Industries up 7%, Resource Industries up 2%, and Energy & Transportation up 17% [5] - Energy & Transportation was the only segment to report an increase in profit margins, benefiting from higher prices and increased sales [5] Outlook and Challenges - Caterpillar raised its full-year sales outlook, expecting modest revenue growth compared to 2024 [6] - Anticipated tariffs in 2025 are projected to cost the company between $1.6 billion and $1.75 billion, which will negatively impact profit margins [6][7] Cash Flow and Stock Performance - The company expects free cash flow, excluding the financial business, to exceed the midpoint of its target range, with $3.2 billion reported in the third quarter [7] - Caterpillar's stock has increased approximately 50% year-to-date, recovering significantly after an initial drop in April due to tariff announcements [10]