研究称中国顶尖科学家数量 2024 年首次超越美国

Core Insights - China has transitioned from being a follower to a leader in international scientific research, showcasing improved quality and influence in research collaborations [1][3][46] - The proportion of Chinese scientists in leadership roles within Sino-American research collaborations has significantly increased, from approximately 30% in 2010 to about 45% in 2023 [3][5] - China is expected to achieve parity with the U.S. in leadership roles in scientific collaborations by around 2026-2029, particularly in fields like artificial intelligence and advanced communication [7][10] Research Collaboration Dynamics - The leadership role of Chinese scientists in bilateral collaborations has risen sharply, indicating a shift in the dynamics of international research teams [3][5] - By 2027, the leadership roles in Sino-American collaborations are projected to reach a balance, with similar trends expected in collaborations with the EU and the UK [3][5][7] - Despite the increase in leadership roles, the relative probability of Chinese researchers taking on leadership positions compared to their U.S. counterparts may not equalize until the end of the century [5] Advances in Key Technologies - China is rapidly closing the gap in critical technology sectors such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and communications, with expectations to match or exceed U.S. leadership in several areas by 2030 [8][10] - In artificial intelligence, while the U.S. currently leads in the number of notable models, China's performance in key tests has significantly improved, narrowing the gap [8][9] - China's advancements in quantum technology, including the demonstration of quantum supremacy, highlight its growing capabilities in this cutting-edge field [10][12][14] Educational and Talent Development Initiatives - Through the Belt and Road Initiative, China has invested significantly in educating and training scientific talent from developing countries, with over 32 billion RMB (approximately 4.5 billion USD) allocated for foreign students from 2012 to 2024 [17][18] - The demographic of foreign students in China has shifted, with a growing number from South Asia and Africa, indicating a strategic focus on developing partnerships with these regions [20][21] - The increase in research output related to the Belt and Road Initiative among foreign students reflects a deepening integration of these scholars into China's scientific ecosystem [24][25] Quality of Research Output - Chinese researchers have surpassed the U.S. in the production of high-impact papers, with significant contributions to top journals like Nature and Science [32][39] - The number of highly cited papers from China has also exceeded that of the U.S., marking a notable shift in the quality of research output [39][40] - The growth in the number of top-tier scientists in China, now surpassing the U.S., indicates a strengthening of the country's research capabilities [40][42] Global Scientific Landscape - The rise of Chinese scientific research is reshaping the global scientific landscape, moving from a focus on quantity to quality and leadership in various fields [46] - The collaborative nature of scientific research between China and the U.S. suggests that advancements in one region do not necessarily diminish the other, but rather contribute to a collective scientific progress [46]