Vistra(US:VST) ZACKSยท2025-11-05 18:30Core Insights - Vistra Corp. (VST) is anticipated to show an increase in revenues but a significant decline in earnings per share (EPS) for Q3 2025, with revenues expected to reach $7 billion, reflecting an 11.28% year-over-year growth, while EPS is projected to drop by 77.14% to $1.20 per share [1][2][6] Revenue and Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for VST's Q3 revenues is $7 billion, indicating an 11.28% increase from the previous year [1] - The estimated EPS for Q3 is $1.20, which represents a 77.14% decline compared to the same quarter last year [2] - Year-over-year growth estimates for the current year and next year are -2.86% and 23.46%, respectively [3] Earnings Performance History - Vistra has surpassed earnings expectations in two of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 69.75% [4][5] Factors Influencing Q3 Performance - Increased demand for clean electricity from data centers and the Permian Basin is expected to positively impact Q3 performance [6][10] - The company's hedging strategy has secured generation volumes, contributing to its stock performance, which has outperformed the industry [6][12] Shareholder Value and Capital Allocation - Vistra's share repurchase program has enhanced shareholder value, executing $5.4 billion in buybacks since November 2021, with plans for an additional $1.4 billion between 2025 and 2026 [11] - The company maintains a disciplined capital allocation strategy, focusing on high-return projects to ensure consistent cash flow generation [18] Market Position and Valuation - VST's shares have increased by 32.7% over the past six months, outperforming the industry average of 7.4% [13] - The stock is currently trading at a premium compared to its industry on a forward 12-month P/E basis [15] Growth Strategy - Vistra is expanding its generation capacity through both organic initiatives and strategic acquisitions, leveraging its integrated business model for competitive advantage [17][21]