Traders on prediction markets see a 30% chance Supreme Court backs Trump's tariffs

Core Viewpoint - The Supreme Court's hearing on President Trump's tariffs has led to a significant decrease in market confidence regarding the legality of these tariffs, with traders adjusting their odds based on the justices' expressed doubts about the administration's authority [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Contracts on Kalshi related to the Supreme Court's ruling on Trump's tariffs fell to around 30% from nearly 50% prior to the hearing [1]. - On Polymarket, similar contracts dropped to about 30% from over 40% earlier in the week, indicating a shift in trader sentiment towards the likelihood of the tariffs being struck down [2]. Group 2: Legal Context - Several conservative justices, alongside their liberal counterparts, raised concerns about the broad authority claimed by Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs, questioning the legal justification provided by the administration [3]. - Lower federal courts have previously ruled that Trump did not possess the legal authority to impose reciprocal tariffs on imports from various trading partners, including specific tariffs on fentanyl products from Canada, China, and Mexico [4]. Group 3: Future Implications - The Supreme Court did not issue a decision on the case during the hearing, and the timeline for the court's ruling remains uncertain [5].