Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao·2025-11-05 18:41Core Viewpoint - The monetary market continues a loose tone into November, with the bond market sentiment gradually recovering, supported by stable fiscal spending and reduced medium to long-term liquidity pressure [1][2]. Group 1: Liquidity and Monetary Policy - November is expected to maintain a loose liquidity stance, with a significant improvement in liquidity supply-demand dynamics compared to October, including a decrease in medium to long-term liquidity pressure by approximately 100 billion yuan [1][2]. - The central bank's resumption of government bond trading operations is injecting longer-term, more stable funds into the market, enhancing market confidence [1][2]. - Historical patterns indicate that November typically experiences relatively stable liquidity, with short-term interest rates expected to remain below policy rates [1][2]. Group 2: Bond Market Recovery - The improvement in liquidity is gradually transmitting to the bond market, with the 30-year government bond futures price rebounding from a low of 113 yuan to above 116 yuan since mid-October, indicating a clear recovery in market sentiment [3][4]. - The recent drop in short-term funding rates, particularly the 1-year interbank certificate of deposit rate to around 1.63%, reflects a stable short-term funding price, supporting the bond market's recovery [4][5]. Group 3: Year-End Market Outlook - Multiple institutions express cautious optimism regarding the overall year-end bond market, predicting that short-term configuration value will stand out while long-term bonds have room for recovery [5][6]. - The current low funding rates and limited funding stratification suggest a steady release of institutional configuration demand, with trading sentiment gradually warming [5][6]. - Investment strategies should focus on a balanced approach, emphasizing high-elasticity bonds and short-term bonds, while being prepared for profit-taking as the year-end approaches [6].