Office vacancies turn corner, driven by small occupiers: CBRE

Core Insights - U.S. office vacancies have shown their first year-over-year decline since the pandemic, driven by a slowdown in new construction and the demolition and conversion of older office spaces [1][2] Vacancy Rates - The vacancy rate in Q3 was 18.8%, down from 19% a year prior, marking a significant improvement in the office sector as it begins to recover from the impacts of remote and hybrid work [2] Leasing Activity - Leasing activity increased by 15% quarter-over-quarter and 11% year-over-year, totaling 59.8 million square feet; however, total square footage fell by 4% and average lease size dropped by 24% compared to pre-pandemic levels [3][4] Demand Drivers - Small occupiers are driving demand, with leases between 10,000 and 20,000 square feet making up 56% of year-to-date activity; renewals are above pre-pandemic averages due to higher moving and construction costs [4] Market Dynamics - The national VTS office demand index finished Q3 at 72, reflecting a 16% year-over-year increase, indicating a market caught between opposing macroeconomic forces such as the federal government shutdown and a 25-basis-point interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve [5][6] Regional Demand Variations - Demand for remote-heavy markets surged by 47% quarter-over-quarter, while non-remote-heavy markets saw a decline of 26%, highlighting a bifurcation in market performance based on industry reliance on remote work [6][7]