特朗普关税遭美国高院大法官轮番质疑，预测市场胜率跳水大跌

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Supreme Court's hearing on the "Trump Tariff Case" raises doubts about the future of this key policy, with many justices questioning the legality of the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [1][2]. Group 1: Legal Challenges - The U.S. International Trade Court ruled in May that Trump lacked the authority to impose "reciprocal tariffs" under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, a decision upheld by the Federal Circuit Court in August [1]. - During the hearing, Chief Justice John Roberts emphasized that taxation is a core power of Congress, suggesting that the case should be bound by the "major questions doctrine," which requires explicit congressional authorization for actions with significant economic or political impact [1][2]. Group 2: Justices' Concerns - Justice Gorsuch questioned the government's claim that Congress had authorized Trump to impose tariffs, arguing that if Congress can delegate its constitutional power to impose tariffs, it could delegate other significant powers as well [2]. - Justice Barrett also inquired whether there is any historical precedent for using the term "regulate imports" to grant tariff authority, indicating skepticism about the administration's interpretation of the law [2]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the hearing, the probability of the Supreme Court supporting Trump's tariffs dropped sharply on the Polymarket platform from 40% to below 30%, even dipping below 20% during the hearing [3]. - Similarly, on the Kalshi platform, the probability for related contracts also fell quickly to 30% [6]. Group 4: Next Steps - It remains unclear when the Supreme Court will issue a ruling on the case, with potential waiting times ranging from weeks to months [8].