中金：股市与宏观背离的新视角

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a divergence between stock market performance and macroeconomic fundamentals, with a notable increase in the proportion of stock investments among risk assets, which may be a key driver supporting the stock market [1][3][4] - A new phenomenon observed is the decline in consumer spending inclination alongside an increase in investment inclination, which is historically rare and its sustainability remains to be seen [1][3] - The current market rally is characterized by a stable wealth level among residents, with the average urban household asset remaining relatively unchanged compared to previous market uptrends [4][9] Group 2 - The analysis suggests that the stock market's long-term performance cannot decouple from economic fundamentals, as a "reallocation" phase may precede corporate profit improvements [3][4] - The proportion of investors willing to invest in stocks has increased from 13.5% in Q2 2024 to 17.2% in Q3 2025, indicating a rising risk appetite among those already invested in risk assets [16][23] - The relationship between the choice to invest in stocks and overall income sentiment is weak, suggesting that the stock market's performance may not directly correlate with macroeconomic conditions [16][34] Group 3 - The current market rally has seen a significant increase in the proportion of investors choosing to invest in stocks, reaching 17.2%, which is above the 70th percentile since 2019 [34][35] - The stock market's support factors, which are less correlated with fundamentals, may continue to bolster the market, but uncertainties could also rise [34][35] - The potential for policy support to enhance income confidence and stabilize wealth levels is crucial for further stock market support, particularly in addressing debt resolution [34][35]