光伏产业仍处深度调整期--产业链价格短期企稳 四季度供需博弈加剧

Core Insights - The photovoltaic industry in China is undergoing a deep adjustment period due to the dual pressures of capacity expansion and slowing terminal demand, with no fundamental change in the overall supply-demand pattern [1] - Despite some price recovery in certain segments of the industry chain, the overall market demand has not formed a strong support [1] - The fourth quarter is expected to see price fluctuations in photovoltaic products, with potential stabilization in some segments due to production cuts and policy support [1] Summary by Sections Polysilicon Market - Polysilicon is facing challenges of oversupply and high inventory, with social inventory expected to reach 440,000-450,000 tons in September [2] - Despite some companies planning production cuts, overall output remains high due to new capacity ramp-up and the resumption of production by second and third-tier manufacturers [2] - The average transaction price for n-type polysilicon is stable at 53,200 yuan/ton, with overall production expected to reach a peak in October [2][3] Silicon Wafer and Cell Prices - Silicon wafer manufacturers have attempted price increases since September, with some sizes turning profitable, while others are covering cash costs [4] - The production of silicon wafers increased by 5.37% month-on-month, but price increases have not fully transmitted to the downstream cell segment [4] - The cell segment is experiencing pressure from the module side, leading to a planned production adjustment in October [4] Module Demand and Production - Module demand has declined, with orders decreasing and production expected to drop by 3.19% month-on-month in October [5] - Mainstream module prices remain stable, but high-power models have seen price increases due to better supply-demand dynamics [5] - The overall industry chain is still under price pressure due to high inventory and insufficient terminal demand, with expectations of continued downward price risks [6]