薪资增长势头稳固 日本央行政策正常化进程不改

Group 1 - Japan's core wages in September showed stable growth, allowing the Bank of Japan to continue its tightening policy, with nominal wages increasing by 1.9% year-on-year, matching economists' expectations [1][3] - The basic salary also grew at the same rate, while a more stable indicator, which excludes bonuses and overtime, rose by 2.2%, slightly slowing from the previous month [1][3] - Real cash earnings fell by 1.4%, marking the ninth consecutive month of decline, which aligns with analysts' expectations and increases pressure on the government to address inflation's impact on households [1][3] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan views wage trends as a key factor in determining the timing of future interest rate hikes, with the next policy decision scheduled for December 19 [3][4] - The largest labor union, Rengo, is aiming for at least a 5% wage increase in upcoming negotiations, including a 3% rise in basic salary, with confirmation expected by the end of November [4][5] - The current wage negotiations face stronger resistance compared to previous years, influenced by tariffs imposed during the Trump administration, which have affected exporters' ability to raise wages [5] Group 3 - Continuous wage growth is a priority for the government, especially in light of public dissatisfaction over rising living costs and declining real wages, which contributed to the ousting of previous leaders [5] - Japan's core inflation has remained above the Bank of Japan's 2% target for approximately three and a half years, eroding household purchasing power [5] - The government is formulating an economic stimulus plan, expected to be completed this month, which will include measures to alleviate price pressures and support wage growth for small and medium-sized enterprises [5]