中美将互降关税 CBOT大豆上涨收复部分失地

Core Viewpoint - The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures experienced a mild increase due to the U.S. government's decision to lower tariffs on certain products for one year, with the benchmark contract rising approximately 1.2% [1] Group 1: Tariff Adjustments - The U.S. White House announced two presidential executive orders on November 4, stating that from November 10, 2025, the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods will be eliminated, and the 24% "reciprocal tariff" on Chinese goods will be suspended for an additional year [1] - The State Council Tariff Commission confirmed that starting from November 10, 2025, at 1:01 PM, the additional tariff measures on imports from the U.S. will be adjusted, maintaining the 10% tariff while suspending the 24% tariff for one year [1] Group 2: Soybean Inventory and Market Conditions - As of October 31, the national major oil mills had an imported soybean inventory of 7.65 million tons, which decreased by 430,000 tons week-on-week and 470,000 tons month-on-month, but increased by 1.53 million tons year-on-year, surpassing the three-year average by 3.09 million tons [1] - The European Commission reported that as of November 2, the EU's soybean import volume for 2025/26 was 3.81 million tons, down from 4.59 million tons the previous year [1] Group 3: Market Influences - According to Everbright Futures, a strong U.S. dollar has also pressured the market [1] - The weekly export inspection report indicated that U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 965,000 tons, aligning with market expectations [1] - Brazilian soybean premiums have decreased, making near-month contracts more cost-effective compared to U.S. soybeans, which has further suppressed U.S. soybean prices [1]