诺德基金：如何看待4000点后的震荡行情？

Core Viewpoint - The current A-share market at the 4000-point level is fundamentally different from previous instances in 2007 and 2015, influenced by changes in market ecology, industry structure, and investment logic [1][4]. Market Changes - The new "National Nine Articles" has led to profound changes in market regulations, emphasizing a safe, transparent, and resilient capital market [6]. - A-share market has seen a significant increase in both the number of listed companies and total market capitalization, with the number of companies rising from 2,447 in 2015 to 5,444 in 2025, a growth of 122% [7][8]. - Total market capitalization expanded from 53 trillion yuan to 123 trillion yuan, marking a 132% increase [8][9]. - The industry structure has shifted, with technology and new energy sectors gaining prominence over traditional sectors like finance and real estate [9][10]. Trading and Investment Dynamics - A-share market trading volume has significantly increased, with daily trading volume reaching 2.29 trillion yuan, remaining above 1 trillion yuan for 128 consecutive trading days [16]. - The current margin financing level is significantly lower than the peak in 2015, indicating a healthier market environment [18]. - Institutional investors now hold 46% of the A-share market, up from 30.9% in 2014, reflecting a more mature investor structure [22][24]. Future Market Outlook - The macroeconomic environment is stabilizing, with China's economy projected to grow at an average rate of 4.7% to 5.0% during the 14th Five-Year Plan, providing a solid foundation for corporate earnings [27]. - Technological innovation, particularly in AI and new energy, is expected to drive market growth and create new leading companies [28][52]. - Policy support and ongoing capital market reforms are anticipated to boost investor confidence and market stability [32]. - The valuation of A-shares remains attractive compared to global markets, with the Shanghai Composite Index trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 17 times [38][39]. Investment Strategies - Investors are encouraged to identify undervalued sectors and capitalize on recovery opportunities, particularly in consumer, healthcare, and financial sectors [43]. - Focus on sectors benefiting from policy support and improving fundamentals, such as supply chain security and technological advancements [48][49][52]. - Maintain a balanced investment approach to mitigate risks associated with market volatility and potential short-term fluctuations [54][56].