Crude Prices Undercut by Dollar Strength and Weakness in Stocks

Group 1: Crude Oil Market Overview - December WTI crude oil prices are down by $0.29 (-0.48%), while December RBOB gasoline prices are up by $0.0049 (+0.26%) [1] - Crude oil prices are pressured by a stronger dollar, with the dollar index reaching a 3-month high, and a slump in equity markets affecting economic outlook and energy demand [1] - OPEC+ announced a pause in additional crude production hikes for Q1-2026, following a production increase of 137,000 bpd for December, in response to an emerging global oil surplus [3] Group 2: Supporting Factors for Oil Prices - The crude crack spread has risen to a 2.25-month high, encouraging refiners to increase crude purchases for gasoline and distillate production [2] - Reports of potential US military strikes on Venezuela, the world's 12th largest oil producer, provide additional support for oil prices [2] Group 3: Russian Oil Production and Exports - Reduced crude exports from Russia are supportive of oil prices, with Ukraine targeting Russian refineries, leading to a significant reduction in Russia's refining capacity and export capabilities [4] - Ukrainian attacks have decreased Russia's total seaborne fuel shipments to 1.88 million bpd in early October, the lowest in over 3.25 years, and have curtailed production by as much as 1.1 million bpd [4] - New US and EU sanctions on Russian oil companies and infrastructure have further limited Russian oil exports [4]