金条热销VS金饰滞销 黄金市场'变天'了？

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market is experiencing fluctuations, with current prices around $3973.73 per ounce, reflecting a slight decline of 0.13% despite a significant year-to-date increase of over 51% in London gold spot prices [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - The high gold prices are challenging retail expansion and marketing efforts, leading to a dichotomy in the retail market where investment gold bars are selling well, while gold jewelry sales are declining due to increased processing costs [2]. - The demand for gold jewelry in China showed a quarter-on-quarter increase but remains lower year-on-year, indicating a weak market despite some recovery [2]. Group 2: Tax Policy Impact - The implementation of new gold tax policies is expected to have profound effects on the industry, potentially increasing costs for non-investment gold enterprises and further suppressing retail market demand [2]. - Experts predict that the new tax regulations may lead to a more severe "store closure wave," as the gap between retail prices and repurchase prices widens, diminishing the perceived value retention of gold jewelry [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Current market conditions suggest a potential bullish trend for gold, with critical support around $3966, which could serve as a reference point for investors [4]. - If gold prices can break through the resistance level near $3980, the next target could be in the range of $3990 to $4005, while failure to do so may lead to a bearish outlook [4]. - The market remains uncertain, with potential downward movements towards $3955 or even $3940 if the current trend continues [4].