日元加息预期遇政策阻力

Group 1 - The USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 153.9400, following a downward trend influenced by strong US employment data and risk appetite in the market [1] - The Bank of Japan's (BoJ) meeting minutes from September indicate a cautious approach to interest rate hikes, with policymakers weighing inflation dynamics and trade risks [1] - There is uncertainty regarding the timing of the next BoJ interest rate hike, as the new Prime Minister, Kishida Fumio, is expected to implement aggressive fiscal spending plans [1] Group 2 - The US dollar index reached its highest level since May, supported by reduced bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [2] - The ongoing US government shutdown, now in its 36th day, has created a data vacuum, leading to a murky economic outlook [2] - Economists warn that the longer the shutdown persists, the higher the risk of the fragile economy transitioning from bending to breaking [2] Group 3 - Technically, the USD/JPY has faced strong resistance in the 154.40-154.45 range, which is now a key support level [3] - A breakthrough above this resistance could target the psychological level of 155.00, with potential follow-up buying paving the way to 155.60-155.65 [3] - Conversely, the 153.65 area may provide some support before a potential drop to the 153.00-152.95 range, with further declines targeting 152.55-152.50 and 152.00 [3]