机构看金市：11月6日

Core Viewpoint - The long-term potential for gold remains strong despite short-term fluctuations, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and economic conditions, while the recent U.S. government shutdown adds to market volatility [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Huatai Futures indicates that the U.S. ADP employment numbers for October increased by 42,000, significantly surpassing the expected 30,000, while the previous month's data was revised down by 29,000, suggesting a slowdown in overall labor demand [1]. - New Lake Futures reports that overnight precious metal prices rebounded, with London spot gold closing around $3,980 per ounce, and silver returning to the $48 per ounce mark, indicating a potential support level for precious metals [2]. - CITIC Securities highlights that historical trends show gold prices are closely linked to geopolitical turmoil and weak U.S. economic performance, with current risks not being significant [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The ISM services PMI for October rose by 2.4 points to 52.4, marking an eight-month high, which exceeded expectations of 50.8, while the new orders index jumped by 5.8 points to 56.2, the highest in a year [1]. - FXStreet analysts note that better U.S. employment data has strengthened the dollar, impacting precious metals negatively, although uncertainties from the government shutdown may still push gold prices higher [3]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Sprott Inc. suggests that while gold prices may consolidate in the short term, there is significant long-term upside potential, with geopolitical and economic uncertainties continuing to support gold and silver prices [4]. - The ongoing trend of central bank gold purchases, combined with global monetary expansion and de-dollarization, is expected to sustain upward pressure on precious metal prices [2].