11月豆粕价格重心有望环比上移

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soybean meal spot prices in October experienced a slight decline due to ample supply, but the market pressure is expected to ease in November, leading to a potential increase in price levels [2][4][5]. Supply Side Analysis - In October, the average price of 43% protein soybean meal was 2980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton (0.96%) from September and down 42 yuan/ton (1.39%) year-on-year [2]. - The average operating rate of soybean crushing enterprises showed a trend of initially low and then high, with high inventory levels contributing to the price drop [2]. - The total soybean crushing volume in October was 8.7632 million tons, a decrease of 935,100 tons from September [2]. Market Dynamics - The market began to see a recovery in soybean meal prices towards the end of October, driven by expectations of U.S.-China negotiations and the resumption of U.S. soybean purchases by China [2]. - The domestic soybean meal spot basis narrowed to 12 yuan/ton by October 31, down from 39 yuan/ton on October 9, indicating weakening spot basis [2]. Future Outlook - For November, the supply of raw soybeans is expected to tighten gradually, with forecasts of soybean arrivals at 9.49 million tons in November, 7.5 million tons in December, and 5 million tons in January [4]. - Despite some recovery in U.S. soybean purchases, the commercial import margins remain negative, limiting procurement by foreign and private enterprises [4]. - The recent irregular rainfall in Brazil has caused delays in planting, which may have a neutral impact on international soybean meal prices in the short term [4]. Price Expectations - The combination of easing supply pressures and supportive cost factors is expected to lead to an upward shift in soybean meal spot prices in November [5].