强预期与弱现实博弈僵持 多晶硅或高位区间震荡

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals shows a mixed trend, with polysilicon futures experiencing an upward movement, reflecting a complex interplay between supply constraints and weak demand in the photovoltaic sector [1] Supply Side - Polysilicon production is expected to decrease, with output in November projected to drop to 120,000 tons due to maintenance of some production capacities [1] - As of October 31, polysilicon manufacturers' inventory has decreased to 256,000 tons, down by 10,600 tons from the previous week, indicating a downward trend in overall inventory levels [1] Demand Side - The fourth quarter is traditionally a peak season for photovoltaic installations; however, the growth rate of newly installed photovoltaic capacity in China from January to September has slowed significantly compared to last year [1] - Due to the weak demand for photovoltaic components, orders from component manufacturers have not met expectations, leading to reduced procurement of polysilicon from upstream suppliers [1] Market Outlook - The market is currently experiencing a stalemate between strong policy expectations and weak real demand, with the expectation that polysilicon spot prices will remain supported under policy expectations, despite the inability of downstream sectors to raise prices due to weak demand [1] - The forecast suggests that polysilicon prices will fluctuate within a high range, indicating a potential for range-bound trading [1]