新一轮电力超级周期要来了！机构预计将持续5～10年

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the electrical equipment sector is driven by the industry's perspective on AI development and electricity supply, with significant implications for China's energy landscape [1][2]. Group 1: Electrical Equipment Sector Performance - From November 5 to 6, the electrical equipment sector experienced a strong upward trend, with nearly 30 stocks hitting the daily limit or rising over 10% on November 5, and more than 15 stocks hitting the limit by noon on November 6 [1]. - The sector's performance is linked to insights from industry leaders, including Nvidia's CEO, who highlighted China's favorable regulatory environment and lower energy costs as factors in its potential AI success [1]. Group 2: Future Electricity Demand and AI Impact - UBS forecasts that China's electricity demand will grow at an annual rate of 8% from 2028 to 2030, indicating a "super cycle" for the electricity industry lasting 5-10 years [1]. - Goldman Sachs projects that by 2027, the power consumption of AI servers will be 50 times that of cloud servers five years ago, with global data center electricity demand expected to surge by 160% by 2030 [1]. Group 3: Challenges and Infrastructure Development - Lin Boqiang from Xiamen University emphasizes that while China can meet electricity supply demands, the challenge lies in achieving low-carbon transformation alongside rising demand due to AI [2][3]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" highlights the importance of new energy infrastructure to support renewable energy growth and maintain competitiveness in upstream sectors [2]. Group 4: New Energy Infrastructure Components - Key components of new energy infrastructure include low-carbon transformation of coal, electric vehicles as energy storage solutions, hydrogen energy development, smart grid advancements, and large-scale energy storage facilities [3]. - The recent inclusion of hydrogen energy in high-level government documents signifies a strategic commitment to its development as part of the energy transition [3][4]. Group 5: Electricity Market Trends and Investments - In the first three quarters of 2023, China's total electricity consumption reached a record high of 7.77 trillion kilowatt-hours, with significant growth in green electricity trading, which increased by 40.6% [5]. - The State Grid plans to invest over 1.2 trillion yuan in the next three years to address the mismatch between renewable energy supply in the northwest and demand in the eastern regions [5].