Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang·2025-11-06 07:23Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector, particularly the aluminum industry, is experiencing a strong upward trend, with significant stock performance and expectations of a supply shortage by 2026 due to rising demand and limited production capacity [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On June 6, aluminum stocks such as China Aluminum, Minfa Aluminum, Shenzhen New Star, Chang Aluminum, and Nanshan Aluminum reached their daily limit, while Yun Aluminum shares rose nearly 9% [1] - The current aluminum price is on the rise, with the electrolytic aluminum industry's gross profit reaching 5,538 yuan per ton, a month-on-month increase of 3.35% [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The market anticipates a 2.5% growth in domestic electrolytic aluminum consumption in 2025, driven by better-than-expected performance in new energy vehicles and photovoltaic sectors, which has widened the supply-demand gap [1] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is nearing its limit, while demand continues to grow steadily, suggesting a potential shortage in electrolytic aluminum next year and an upward trend in aluminum prices [1] Group 3: Industry Insights - CITIC Construction Investment Securities noted that the ignition of a 250,000-ton electrolytic aluminum project in Indonesia on September 20 by Xinfeng temporarily alleviated the 2026 supply gap, putting pressure on aluminum prices below 21,000 yuan [1] - However, issues such as equipment failures at Century Aluminum affecting 200,000 tons of capacity and the expiration of a power contract at South32's Mozambique aluminum plant affecting 500,000 tons have revealed the fragility of the high operating rate in the electrolytic aluminum industry, potentially opening up space for prices above 21,000 yuan [1] - The low price-to-earnings (PE) ratio in the electrolytic aluminum sector presents a balanced opportunity for both safety and aggressive investment [1]