下游需求表现平稳 预计鸡蛋短期偏强整理为主

Core Viewpoints - The egg futures market is experiencing a short-term upward trend, with institutions suggesting a cautious approach and potential short-selling opportunities in the future [1][2][3] Supply and Demand Analysis - The overall egg price in the country is stabilizing, with seasonal patterns indicating potential price fluctuations due to inventory and supply pressures [1] - The supply side shows a strengthening price gap between large and small eggs, attributed to the accelerated culling of older hens and an increase in new laying hens, primarily of imported breeds [1] - Demand remains steady, with traders mostly purchasing eggs as needed, leading to minimal inventory changes and a lack of proactive stocking behavior [1][2] Market Sentiment and Future Expectations - Institutions expect the egg market to maintain a strong short-term trend, with a focus on potential short-selling opportunities in the fourth quarter [2] - The current high inventory levels and low chick replenishment rates are expected to improve long-term supply forecasts, despite the existing high price premiums in future contracts [2] - The sentiment in the market is shifting positively due to upcoming consumption events like Double Eleven and pre-holiday stocking, which may lead to increased inventory accumulation [3]