Here’s How Much Hurricane Melissa Was Worsened by Climate Change

Core Insights - Hurricane Melissa has been identified as the most powerful storm to hit Jamaica, significantly influenced by climate change factors such as warmer ocean waters and increased humidity in the atmosphere [1][2]. Climate Change Impact - The storm reached wind speeds of 185 mph, with climate change making such extreme winds five times more likely and 7% more intense [2]. - The rainfall associated with Hurricane Melissa was found to be 30% more intense in Jamaica due to climate change, and the likelihood of such intense rainfall was doubled compared to a scenario without greenhouse gas emissions [3]. - In eastern Cuba, the analysis indicated that climate change made the intense rainfall from Melissa nine times more likely [3]. Ocean Temperature Influence - The intensity of Hurricane Melissa was largely driven by sea temperatures that were nearly 1.5°C above average, with this warmth extending deep into the ocean, providing a significant energy source for the storm [4]. - The high surface temperatures in the Caribbean Sea were found to be six times more likely than in previous climate conditions [4]. Economic and Human Impact - The storm resulted in significant casualties across Jamaica, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti, with estimates of losses in Jamaica reaching up to $7 billion, which is about one-third of the nation's projected GDP for 2024 [5]. - Insured losses in Jamaica are estimated at $4.2 billion, highlighting the vulnerability of the population, as less than 20% of homes are insured [5]. - The compounded effects of consecutive storms, such as Hurricane Beryl from the previous year, complicate recovery efforts for affected communities [6].