智通财经网·2025-11-06 08:06Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan raises the profit forecast for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (00388) and maintains a "buy" rating, citing strong trading activity in the Hong Kong stock market and expectations for continued market engagement due to the return of quality Chinese assets and the extension of cross-border connectivity to IPOs [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first nine months of 2025 (9M25), Hong Kong Exchanges reported total revenue of HKD 21.85 billion, a year-on-year increase of 37%, with main revenue at HKD 20.44 billion, up 41% [2]. - Net profit for 9M25 reached HKD 13.42 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 45% [2]. - In the third quarter of 2025 (3Q25), main revenue was HKD 7.48 billion, up 54% year-on-year and 13% quarter-on-quarter, while net profit was HKD 4.90 billion, increasing by 56% year-on-year and 10% quarter-on-quarter [2]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue sources for 9M25 include: trading fees at HKD 7.83 billion (39%), clearing and settlement fees at HKD 5.27 billion (26%), investment income at HKD 3.89 billion (19%), listing fees at HKD 1.27 billion (6%), and market data fees at HKD 0.87 billion (4%) [3]. - Year-on-year growth rates for various fees include: trading fees +57%, clearing and settlement fees +66%, listing fees +17%, and market data fees +8% [3]. Trading Activity - The average daily turnover (ADT) for Hong Kong stocks in 9M25 was HKD 238.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 132%, with 3Q25 ADT reaching a record high of HKD 267.9 billion, up 150% year-on-year [3]. - Southbound ADT for 9M25 was HKD 125.9 billion, up 229%, while northbound ADT was RMB 206.4 billion, up 67% [3]. IPO Market - In 9M25, the Hong Kong IPO market raised HKD 188.3 billion, three times the amount raised in the same period last year, with 69 new IPOs [5]. - As of the end of 3Q25, there were 297 IPO applications in process, compared to 84 at the end of 2024 [5]. Investment Income - Investment income for 3Q25 was HKD 1.02 billion, down 16% year-on-year and 34% quarter-on-quarter, contributing 21% to net profit [6]. - The decline in investment income was attributed to reduced external fund composition and narrowed exchange rate gains [6].