【环球财经】美元指数重返100关口，本次“剧本”有何不同？

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the US dollar index, surpassing the 100 mark, is attributed to a combination of hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve and external factors such as tightening dollar liquidity and the depreciation of non-US currencies, particularly the Japanese yen [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Actions - The dollar index's rise since mid-September is linked to the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance during the October meeting, which emphasized economic resilience and persistent inflation risks, leading to a decline in rate cut expectations [1][2]. - Analysts note that the current economic environment differs significantly from previous periods, with a lack of clear economic data making the market more susceptible to the Fed's hawkish comments [2][3]. Group 2: Currency Movements and External Influences - The depreciation of the Japanese yen, influenced by the election of Fumio Kishida as Japan's Prime Minister and subsequent fiscal and monetary easing, has contributed to the dollar's strength [2]. - The widening yield spread between US and Japanese bonds following the Fed's meeting has also facilitated carry trades, further supporting the dollar's rise [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook for the Dollar - Analysts suggest that while the dollar may have short-term upward potential, the current situation does not indicate a new long-term appreciation cycle for the dollar [3]. - Market expectations for the Fed's December meeting indicate a probability of maintaining interest rates, which could influence the dollar's performance depending on employment data and inflation trends [3]. - The potential for increased dollar supply due to the Fed's decision to halt balance sheet reduction could weaken the dollar's upward momentum [3]. Group 4: External Economic Conditions - Japan's high core inflation may provide the Bank of Japan with room to raise interest rates, which could limit the extent of the dollar's strength [4].