智通财经网·2025-11-06 08:33Core Viewpoint - Western Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) and is optimistic about the deepening of mutual market access and the appreciation of the Renminbi, raising the forecast for 2025 net profit to HKD 18 billion [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, HKEX reported revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 21.85 billion and HKD 13.42 billion, representing year-on-year increases of 36.6% and 44.8% respectively [1] - In Q3 2025, HKEX achieved revenue and net profit of HKD 7.78 billion and HKD 4.90 billion, with year-on-year increases of 44.7% and 55.8%, and quarter-on-quarter increases of 8% and 10% [1] - Q3 net profit reached a historical high, slightly exceeding previous expectations [1] Group 2: Market Activity - The Hong Kong cash market achieved record trading volumes, with an average daily turnover (ADT) of approximately HKD 256.4 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 126.3% [2] - In Q3 2025, the ADT reached approximately HKD 286.4 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 142.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20% [2] - The Southbound and Northbound ADT reached HKD 125.9 billion and RMB 206.4 billion respectively, with year-on-year increases of 284.9% and 143.5% [2] Group 3: IPO and Derivatives Market - In the first three quarters of 2025, the Hong Kong market saw 69 new IPOs, raising a total of HKD 188.3 billion, which is a year-on-year increase of 238.7% [2] - As of the end of October, the total IPO fundraising amount exceeded USD 26 billion, ranking first globally [2] - The average daily trading volume of derivatives and LME continued to grow, with average daily contract numbers and commodity ADV increasing by 11% and 4% year-on-year respectively [2] Group 4: Investment Income - Margin investment income growth is a key support for investment income, with margin scale increasing by 47% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025 [2] - The company fully redeemed its external portfolio in Q2 2025 to raise funds for headquarters property, leading to a 39% year-on-year decline in external portfolio income for Q1-Q3 2025 [2] - The average overnight HIBOR in October has rebounded to 2.8% from a low of 0.02% at the end of June, but may still show volatility due to potential Fed rate cuts and the impact of external portfolio redemption on annual investment income [2]