日元疲软受薪资数据拖累

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate is experiencing fluctuations, currently trading at 153.6200, following a significant rebound after a dip, influenced by various economic indicators and statements from Japanese officials [1]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The USD/JPY rate saw a decline of 0.5% on Tuesday due to warnings from Japan's Finance Minister, but rebounded on Wednesday, driven by better-than-expected ADP data from the US [1]. - Japan's September wage income level showed a year-on-year decline of 1.4%, raising concerns about the sustainability of demand-driven inflation in Japan [1]. - The market is questioning the Bank of Japan's ability to generate sustainable inflation pressure, given the ongoing weakness in wages despite a rising inflation environment [1]. Group 2: Central Bank Actions - The Bank of Japan is awaiting wage growth momentum before considering interest rate hikes, with the December rate increase not guaranteed [1]. - The upcoming speech by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda on December 1 is anticipated to be a critical factor, especially after an unexpected rise in Tokyo's CPI last month [1]. - Market expectations for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan are increasing, as indicated by interest rate futures for January to April next year [1]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The USD/JPY remains within an upward channel, but the recent decline in the exchange rate amidst a rising dollar index suggests a decrease in market enthusiasm for shorting the yen [2]. - There is a growing risk of adjustment for the USD/JPY as the dollar approaches a potential peak and as the yen's interest rate hike process progresses [2].