印度大丰收+菲律宾延长进口禁令 亚洲大米价格料持续承压

Core Insights - Asian rice prices are expected to decline further due to India's bumper harvest increasing global supply, while the Philippines, the largest rice importer, has restricted overseas rice procurement to support local farmers [1][3] Group 1: Supply and Price Trends - As of October 22, the wholesale price of Thai 5% broken white rice has dropped to $351 per ton, the lowest level since September 2015 [1] - The FAO projects global rice production will reach a record high of 556.4 million tons in the 2025-26 season, with South Asian farmers expected to complete harvesting by the end of this year [3] - Nitin Gupta from Olam Agri India Pvt. noted that some rice-importing countries, particularly in West Africa, have enough rice stocks to meet three to five months of consumption, leading to an oversupply situation that will continue to depress Asian rice prices [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Buyer Behavior - The Philippines has extended its rice import ban until the end of 2025 to protect local farmers from the impact of low-priced imported rice [3] - Buyers are adopting a more cautious procurement strategy due to ample global supply, with Invictus Trading Fze planning to purchase rice from India in batches rather than all at once, anticipating continued price declines [4] - Former senior economist at the International Rice Research Institute, Samarendu Mohanty, indicated that due to India's high rice production, the bearish market trend is likely to persist, with domestic rice prices in India potentially falling by an additional 10% to 15% [4]