超2万亿逆回购到期，11月资金面迎考

Core Viewpoint - The overall liquidity pressure in November is expected to remain low under supportive monetary policy, despite the expiration of over 20 trillion yuan in reverse repos [1][4]. Group 1: Market Operations - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will see 20,680 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing this week, with significant amounts maturing daily [1][2]. - On November 6, the PBOC conducted a reverse repo operation of 928 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2,498 billion yuan due to maturing repos [2][3]. - The PBOC is expected to continue using various policy tools, including reverse repos and Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operations, to inject medium- to long-term liquidity into the market [1][3]. Group 2: Liquidity Analysis - Analysts believe that the liquidity pressure in November will decrease by approximately 1,000 billion yuan compared to October, supported by a reduction in tax payment scales [3][4]. - The net issuance of government bonds in October was 20 billion yuan, indicating a stable injection of long-term liquidity into the banking system [3]. - Historical trends suggest that MLF and reverse repos often exhibit a "see-saw" effect, with the PBOC managing liquidity through various instruments based on market conditions [4][5]. Group 3: Interest Rates - The overnight Shibor rate was reported at 1.3130%, showing a slight decline, while the 7-day Shibor rate was at 1.4210%, also down [2]. - Analysts expect the overnight funding rates to remain slightly above the policy rate, with minimal fluctuations expected throughout November [4][5]. - The anticipated stability in funding rates is supported by the PBOC's ongoing operations and the historical performance of liquidity in November [5].