进入第37天！美国政府停摆刷新历史纪录，每周损失超百亿美元

Core Viewpoint - The prolonged U.S. government shutdown, now the longest in history at 37 days, could lead to a potential decline of up to 2 percentage points in the fourth-quarter economic growth rate, with weekly losses estimated between $10 billion and $30 billion [1][3][4]. Economic Impact - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) warns that if the shutdown extends into Thanksgiving week, approximately $14 billion in losses will be irrecoverable [1]. - Historical data suggests that previous shutdowns had temporary impacts, but this shutdown is expected to have more severe consequences due to its extended duration and the current economic fragility, with many Americans concerned about inflation and job prospects [3][6]. - The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has announced a 10% reduction in flight schedules at 40 major airports due to air traffic controller shortages caused by the shutdown [4][5]. Broader Consequences - The shutdown's effects are widespread, impacting not only federal employees but also millions of Americans who rely on food assistance during the holiday season [3][5]. - The unemployment rate may rise from 4.3% to 4.7% as furloughed federal employees are counted among the unemployed [5]. - An estimated $24 billion in federal goods and services spending has been paused, affecting contractors and suppliers reliant on these funds [5][6]. Small Business and Community Effects - Approximately 4,800 small businesses have had $2.5 billion in loans frozen due to the shutdown, hindering their daily operations and expansion efforts [6]. - The Head Start program, which provides essential services for children and families, has already seen over 8,000 children lose access to services, with numbers expected to rise if the shutdown continues [6]. Consumer Confidence - The shutdown is anticipated to further erode consumer confidence, particularly as it coincides with critical shopping seasons like Thanksgiving and Christmas [6][7]. - Despite some positive economic indicators, such as rising stock markets and low unemployment claims, the political situation in Washington is expected to overshadow these factors, leading to a decline in consumer sentiment [7].