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上市首日市值翻倍的旺山旺水还能“旺”多久?

Core Viewpoint - The innovative pharmaceutical company Wangshan Wangshui has successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, achieving a market capitalization of approximately HKD 13.7 billion with a share price increase of 145.73% on the first day of trading [2]. Summary by Sections IPO Details - Wangshan Wangshui plans to globally offer 17.6 million H-shares, accounting for 10.50% of total shares post-IPO, with 90% allocated for international sale and 10% for public offering. The offering price was set at HKD 33.37, leading to an estimated market value of HKD 58.73 billion [2]. Product Pipeline and Market Potential - The company focuses on three core pipelines: a domestic COVID-19 treatment drug, hydrogen bromide deuterated remdesivir tablets, the "most expensive domestic Viagra" sildenafil citrate tablets, and an innovative antidepressant LV232. Additionally, there are four candidate drugs in clinical stages and three in preclinical stages [2][4]. COVID-19 Treatment Drug - The hydrogen bromide deuterated remdesivir tablets, co-developed with Junshi Biosciences, were initially expected to have significant commercial potential, with projections suggesting peak sales exceeding RMB 200 billion. However, actual sales have fallen short due to the end of the pandemic and increased competition [5][7][8]. Sales Performance - In 2023, the revenue from the hydrogen bromide deuterated remdesivir tablets was approximately RMB 1.84 million, constituting 92% of the company's total revenue of RMB 2 billion. The sales contribution from this product was only about RMB 400,000 in early 2025 [8][9]. Competitive Landscape - The market for COVID-19 treatments is highly competitive, with Pfizer's Paxlovid holding a 46% market share in China. Wangshan Wangshui's product has struggled to compete effectively against established alternatives [9]. Male Health Drug - Sildenafil citrate tablets, approved for treating erectile dysfunction, are seen as the company's most commercially viable product. The drug has been positioned to compete directly with existing PDE5 inhibitors, offering advantages such as faster onset and longer duration of action [12][14]. Market Dynamics - The PDE5 inhibitor market in China is projected to grow from RMB 5.5 billion in 2018 to RMB 9.3 billion by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 9.4%. However, the market is fragmented, and Wangshan Wangshui faces challenges in gaining market share due to the presence of numerous generic competitors [14][15]. Antidepressant Drug - LV232, an innovative antidepressant, targets a significant market with an increasing number of patients suffering from depression. The global market for antidepressants is expected to grow, with LV232 aiming to differentiate itself by reducing common side effects associated with traditional treatments [16][20]. Clinical Development - LV232 is currently undergoing a Phase II clinical trial for the treatment of major depressive disorder, with completion expected in the second half of 2026. Its success in demonstrating efficacy and reducing adverse effects will be crucial for its commercial viability [19][20].