贸易数据利好 澳元持稳0.650上方

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) against the US dollar (USD) remains above the 0.6500 level following a trade surplus that exceeded expectations, despite a general decline in the USD and a recovery in risk sentiment [1] Group 1: Technical Analysis - The AUD/USD pair is currently consolidating, with the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at approximately 0.6440 acting as a significant support level, reinforced by the October low [1] - A potential downward trend could lead the AUD/USD to test the critical 200-day moving average support at 0.6445, with further declines possibly reaching the August low of 0.6414 and the June low of 0.6372 [1] - If bullish momentum returns, the October high at 0.6629 will be the immediate resistance, with potential upward movement towards 0.6707, followed by key levels at 0.6942 and 0.7000 [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Indicators - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has rebounded above 45, indicating potential upward movement, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) above 16 suggests a sustained but weak trend [1] - The daily chart indicates that the AUD/USD pair is consolidating within a rectangular formation, showing sideways movement and remaining below the nine-day exponential moving average (EMA), which indicates weak short-term momentum [1] Group 3: Support and Resistance Levels - A successful breakout above the psychological level of 0.6500 could lead to testing the lower boundary of the rectangle around 0.6460, followed by the five-month low of 0.6414 recorded on August 21 [2] - Initial resistance is found at the nine-day EMA of 0.6520, followed by the 50-day EMA at 0.6539; breaking these levels would improve short- and medium-term price momentum [2] - Further upward movement would indicate a bullish trend, supporting the AUD/USD pair to approach the 13-month high of 0.6707 set on September 17 [2]