英国央行如期维持利率不变，删除“谨慎”措辞为12月降息铺路

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England has decided to maintain the interest rate at 4%, paving the way for a potential rate cut in December, with a more dovish stance than expected [1][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Decision - The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to keep the interest rate unchanged, with five members supporting this decision while four members advocated for a 25 basis point cut to 3.75% [1]. - Governor Bailey's vote was pivotal, as he has shown a tendency towards supporting a rate cut, citing a balance in inflation risks [1][4]. - The decision breaks a pattern of gradual monetary policy easing that had been in place since August 2024 [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The inflation rate in September was reported at 3.8%, which the Bank of England considers likely to be the peak [1]. - The updated forecast indicates that inflation is expected to drop to 3.1% by early next year and stabilize around the 2% target by the second quarter of 2027 [6]. - The unemployment rate is projected to peak at 5.1% in the second quarter, higher than previous estimates [6]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the GBP/USD exchange rate retraced earlier gains, trading around 1.3075, as traders increased bets on future monetary easing [4]. - The market anticipates a reduction of approximately 50 basis points in interest rates by mid-2026, up from a prior expectation of 47 basis points [4]. Group 4: Future Considerations - The upcoming autumn budget from the Labour government may introduce significant tax increases, potentially impacting economic growth and inflation [6]. - The MPC's communication reform now includes individual voting records, reflecting a more transparent decision-making process [4][5].