芝加哥联储主席：政府停摆致通胀“数据盲区” 降息路径需更谨慎

Group 1 - The U.S. federal government shutdown has led to a pause in the release of official inflation data, raising concerns among some Federal Reserve officials regarding future monetary policy direction [1] - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee expressed unease about continuing interest rate cuts due to the lack of key price data, stating that the Fed has less clarity on price trends compared to employment indicators during the government shutdown [1] - Goolsbee emphasized the need for caution among policymakers in the face of data shortages and reduced economic visibility, suggesting that they should slow down their decision-making process [1] Group 2 - Despite the temporary interruption of official labor data, a real-time unemployment rate indicator based on private sector data from the Chicago Fed shows an October unemployment rate of approximately 4.36%, nearly unchanged from August's 4.35%, indicating that the labor market has not deteriorated further [2] - As the gap in inflation data widens and internal disagreements among officials increase, the market is beginning to bet that the Federal Reserve may slow down the pace of interest rate cuts, particularly ahead of the next rate decision in December [2] - Goolsbee's recent comments indicate a strengthening of hawkish voices within the Federal Reserve, contrasting with the dovish perspective that has recently advocated for continued policy easing to support employment [2]