National Retail Federation predicts first $1 trillion holiday shopping season

Core Insights - American shoppers are projected to spend between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion during the holiday shopping season, reflecting an increase of 3.7% to 4.2% compared to the previous year [1][2] Group 1: Spending Forecast - The National Retail Federation's forecast indicates a positive outlook for holiday spending despite economic uncertainties and tariff concerns [1] - Last year's holiday spending increased by 4.3% compared to 2023, highlighting a trend of growth in consumer spending [2] Group 2: Economic Context - The current forecast is made during the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, which has resulted in a lack of data on the jobs market and retail sales for 37 days [2] - The spending estimates exclude sales from automobile dealers, gasoline stations, and restaurants, focusing solely on retail purchases [2]