ASTS Stock Before Q3 Earnings: A Smart Buy or Risky Investment?

Core Viewpoint - AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) is set to report its third-quarter 2025 earnings on November 10, 2025, with revenue estimates at $20.74 million and an expected loss of 18 cents per share [1][7]. Earnings Performance - The company has a negative four-quarter earnings surprise history averaging 38.12%, with the last quarter showing a significant negative surprise of 115.79% [2][3]. Earnings Whispers - ASTS currently has an Earnings Surprise Prediction (ESP) of -28.57% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), indicating low chances of an earnings beat this time [4]. Factors Influencing Results - ASTS acquired global S-Band spectrum priority rights for $64.5 million, which is expected to enhance its network coverage and subscriber capacity [5][8][17]. - The company aims to provide connectivity from space to smartphones with peak data speeds of up to 120 Mbps, while expanding its mobile network operator partnerships [9][17]. Market Conditions - The company faces challenges from unfavorable macroeconomic conditions, including rising inflation and higher interest rates, which could negatively impact its operations and margins [10][22]. Price Performance - Over the past year, ASTS shares have increased by 212.5%, outperforming the industry growth of 40.4%, but underperforming compared to Viasat, Inc. (VSAT) which increased by 268.9% [11]. Valuation Metrics - ASTS is currently trading at a premium valuation with a price/sales ratio of 109.86, significantly higher than the industry average of 4.47 [12]. Investment Considerations - The company has launched its initial set of five commercial satellites and plans to introduce next-generation satellites in the second half of 2025, which will enhance its broadband connectivity capabilities [14][21]. - ASTS is expanding its client base and collaborating with major telecom operators, which is expected to improve its commercial prospects [17]. Competitive Landscape - The company faces stiff competition from industry leaders like SpaceX's Starlink, Iridium, and Viasat, which are also advancing satellite communication technologies [18]. - Continuous investment in innovation and infrastructure is necessary for ASTS to maintain its competitive edge, but this is driving up operating costs and straining margins [19][20].